Ensight

Headline inflation 15.1% August 2026
USD/ETB 160.8 17 Sep 2026
National bank rate 16.0% since 13 Jul 2026
Listed on the ESX 6 18 Sep 2026
Goods exports US$10.7bn FY2025/26
Remittances US$8.2bn FY2025/26
Reserves, import cover 2.1 months end FY2025/26
Gold exports US$5.65bn FY2025/26

The briefing

53% Half of the record export year is gold, and that is the risk

Goods exports reached US$10.7 billion in the year to 7 July, the highest on record. Gold was US$5.65 billion of it, coffee US$3 billion, and everything else together about US$2.05 billion. The record is real; so is the concentration. Most of the gold comes from artisanal workings, manufactured goods are about 2% of the basket, and the year rests on one metal’s price and one channel of supply.

Ensight, from Ministry of Trade and Ministry of Mines figures · October 21, 2026

US$1.06bn Remittances out-earn gold, and the two official counts differ by US$1.06bn

The National Bank’s figure, published by the Ethiopian Diaspora Service, puts remittances at US$8.2 billion for the year to 7 July, more than gold at US$5.65 billion and well over twice coffee at US$3 billion. IFAD counted US$7.14 billion of formally recorded remittances on a calendar basis. The two cover different periods and need not match, but a gap of US$1.06 billion in the largest source of foreign currency is too large to leave unexplained, with reserves at 2.1 months of import cover.

Ensight, from National Bank, Diaspora Service and IFAD figures · October 20, 2026

+0.9pp A policy rate 0.9 points above inflation: how tight is 16%?

The National Bank Rate has stood at 16% since 13 July. Headline inflation was 15.1% in the year to August, the latest reading on the data page, which leaves a real policy rate of about 0.9 percentage points: positive, but only just. The monthly figures tell a more useful story. Prices rose 0.9% in August against 2.6% in July. Compounded over a year, August’s pace would be about 11% and July’s about 36%, so whether policy is tight depends on which month is the trend.

Ensight, from National Bank and Statistical Service figures · October 19, 2026

ETB 50.37bn The miners pay the power bill, and the rains decide for how long

In the year to 7 July data mining companies paid Ethiopian Electric Power ETB 50.37 billion, more than the ETB 46 billion it earned from the domestic supplier. In dollars, data centers and miners brought in US$335.5 million against US$140 million from cross-border sales. Now falling hydrological inflows have cut miners from 98% of contracted supply to 23%. With hydropower about 96% of generation, the utility’s best-paying customer is also the first one the weather takes away.

Ensight, from Ethiopian Electric Power figures · October 18, 2026

11 The exchange approves eleven companies to list, and names none of them

Yodit Kassa, chief executive of the Ethiopian Securities Exchange, told Bloomberg in Nairobi that eleven companies have approval in principle to list and that the first, a financial services firm, begins trading the following week. Six companies are on the main market today. Neither the exchange nor the Capital Market Authority has published the list.

Ethiopian Securities Exchange, via Bloomberg · September 17, 2026

2.7m oz Kurmuk notifies the ministry that its first gold pour is imminent

Kurmuk Gold Mine, a subsidiary of Canada's Allied Gold, told the Ministry of Mines it expects its first pour during commissioning. The Benishangul Gumuz operation holds 2.7 million ounces of proven and probable reserves and targets 240,000 to 270,000 ounces in its first year. Of the 44.067 tonnes Ethiopia produced last year, 40.86 came from artisanal miners.

Capital Newspaper; Ministry of Mines · September 17, 2026

US$2,376 A Guji lot sets a coffee record at the online specialty auction

The Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority reported a record price of US$2,376 a kilogram, about ETB 380,000, for a Guji lot sold on the M-Cultivo auction. Coffee earned the country US$3 billion in the year to 7 July against US$2.65 billion the year before. The European deforestation regulation applies to large operators from 30 December, inside the current shipping season.

Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority · September 16, 2026

9 Nov The state bank sets a November deadline to link accounts to Fayda

The Commercial Bank of Ethiopia gave customers until 9 November to link their accounts to the national digital ID. The deadline covers branches outside Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa, the Harari region and twenty-four other cities, where enforcement began earlier. Fayda enrollments reached 49.1 million on 24 August against a target of 90 million by 2027.

Commercial Bank of Ethiopia · September 16, 2026

23% Electric Power cuts the data miners from 98% of contract to 23%

Ethiopian Electric Power reduced supply to data mining companies by 75 percentage points because hydrological inflows are falling; hydropower is about 96% of Ethiopian generation. A reassessment is due in October. In the year to 7 July the miners had paid the utility ETB 50.37 billion, more than the ETB 46 billion it earned from the domestic supplier.

Ethiopian Electric Power, via Bloomberg · September 15, 2026

US$8.2bn Two remittance figures land a week apart and do not agree

The Ethiopian Diaspora Service, citing National Bank data, put remittances at US$8.2 billion for the year to 7 July, up from US$7.1 billion. Six days later IFAD recorded US$7.14 billion of formally recorded remittances on a calendar basis, equal to about 5% of GDP. Neither body published a reconciliation. Reserves stand at 2.1 months of import cover.

Ethiopian Diaspora Service; IFAD · September 15, 2026

400 MW Power exports to Kenya double at peak from December

Ethiopian Electric Power says peak exports to Kenya rise from 200 MW to 400 MW from December 2026, and off-peak from 65 MW to 150 MW, over the 1,045 kilometer interconnector built for US$1.26 billion. Cross-border sales earned US$140 million last year, against US$335.5 million from data centers and miners inside Ethiopia.

Ethiopian Electric Power; Capital Newspaper · September 15, 2026

ETB 5bn The bank capital deadline passed on 30 June and nobody has published the roll call

Every Ethiopian bank was required to hold ETB 5 billion of paid-up capital by 30 June, ten times the previous minimum, under a directive issued in April 2021. Eleven weeks on, no list of which of the thirty-one banks met it has been published by the National Bank or any bank association. Sector capital stood at ETB 422.4 billion at 30 June 2025.

National Bank of Ethiopia; The Reporter · September 12, 2026

US$120m The foreign exchange auction misses its offer for the first time

At its twenty-eighth auction the National Bank offered US$125 million and sold US$120 million, the first undersubscription since results began being published. The weighted average was 160.5357 birr and the marginal rate 158.35. Four weeks earlier the same offer drew US$470 million of bids. Analysts attribute the swing to a birr liquidity squeeze rather than to weaker dollar demand.

National Bank of Ethiopia; Capital Newspaper · September 9, 2026

15.1% Inflation eases to 15.1%, the second highest print of this cycle

Consumer prices rose 15.1% in the year to August, down from 15.3% in July but well above the 13.6% of August 2025. Food was 14.9% and non-food 15.4%; education is the fastest single component at 25.3%. Month on month prices rose 0.9%, against 2.6% in July. The Monetary Policy Committee meets again at the end of September with the National Bank Rate at 16%.

Ethiopian Statistical Service · September 9, 2026

ETB 295bn Ethio Telecom sets a 2026/27 plan and promises a first dividend

The operator targets ETB 295 billion of revenue and 96.2 million customers, with 4G sites rising from 6,924 to 11,014 and population coverage from 82.2% to 95%. Its 47,377 new shareholders receive a first dividend: ETB 34.5 billion this year against ETB 111.3 billion over three. Revenue for the year to 7 July was ETB 215.8 billion, up 33.2%.

Ethio Telecom; Addis Fortune · September 9, 2026

ETB 38.71bn The state bank's audited accounts arrive without a stated year

Audited figures for the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia show net profit of ETB 38.71 billion, up 75.8%, total assets of ETB 2.31 trillion, deposits of ETB 1.695 trillion and a foreign currency loss of ETB 36.71 billion. In July its management had announced profit above ETB 80 billion and deposits of ETB 2.4 trillion for the year to 30 June 2026. The report does not say which year the audit covers.

The Reporter · September 5, 2026

US$10.7bn A record export year, and four fifths of it is gold and coffee

The Ministry of Trade and Regional Integration put goods exports at US$10.7 billion for the year to 7 July, 114% of target and the highest in the country's history. Gold was US$5.65 billion and coffee US$3 billion. Mining revenue tripled from US$1.88 billion, almost all of it from artisanal workings. Manufactured exports remain about 2% of the basket.

Ministry of Trade and Regional Integration · September 4, 2026

ETB 100bn The central bank and the IFC agree to build a mortgage refinance company

A framework agreement signed in the presence of the prime minister establishes Ethiopia's first mortgage refinance company, capitalized at ETB 100 billion with an IFC contribution of at least US$200 million, against a target of 1.5 million homes over five years. It is the first institution designed to let Ethiopian banks fund long-dated housing loans without holding them all on their own books.

Government Communication Service; ENA · September 3, 2026

15m Safaricom Ethiopia passes fifteen million active customers

Four years after commercial launch the challenger reports 15 million ninety-day active subscribers, more than 3,500 sites and about 60% population coverage. Revenue for the quarter to 30 June was ETB 6.13 billion, up 66.1%, with M-PESA moving ETB 19.51 billion. The company still loses money and guides to breaking even at the EBITDA line by March 2027.

Safaricom Ethiopia · September 3, 2026

2028 Congress votes to extend AGOA to 2028, and Ethiopia is still not in it

The United States Congress passed an extension of the African trade preference program to 31 December 2028. Ethiopia was terminated from it on 1 January 2022 and remains ineligible; a public hearing was held in July and no reinstatement has been announced. Industrial parks exported US$266.9 million last year, up 115%, without duty-free access to the American market.

United States Congress; USTR · September 3, 2026